{"id":22000,"date":"2026-01-26T12:23:09","date_gmt":"2026-01-26T08:23:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/?p=22000"},"modified":"2026-01-26T12:23:09","modified_gmt":"2026-01-26T08:23:09","slug":"iran-%c9%99trafinda-g%c9%99rginlik-riskl%c9%99r-v%c9%99-furs%c9%99tl%c9%99r","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/?p=22000","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran \u0259traf\u0131nda g\u0259rginlik: riskl\u0259r v\u0259 f\u00fcrs\u0259tl\u0259r"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>\u018fdal\u0259t partiyas\u0131n\u0131n Humanitar m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259r \u00fczr\u0259 s\u0259dr m\u00fcavini Rafiq \u018fs\u0259dov son g\u00fcnl\u0259r \u0130ran \u0130slam Respublikas\u0131 \u0259traf\u0131nda yaranm\u0131\u015f g\u0259rginliyin inki\u015faf dinamikas\u0131n\u0131 \u015f\u0259rh edib: “\u0130ran\u0131n par\u00e7alanma riski getdikc\u0259 art\u0131r. AB\u015e-nin bu prosesi yar\u0131m\u00e7\u0131q qoymaq niyy\u0259tind\u0259 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131q g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr. Vaxtil\u0259 \u00c7in\u0259 ucuz neft ixrac ed\u0259n Venesuelan\u0131 \u0259l\u0259 ke\u00e7ir\u0259n Va\u015finqton indi d\u0259 \u0130ran neftinin \u00c7in\u0259 yolunu ba\u011flama\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Bunun \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0130randa hakimiyy\u0259t d\u0259yi\u015fikliyi qa\u00e7\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr.
\nBel\u0259 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr\u0259m ki, yax\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u0259rd\u0259 Trampla \u018frdo\u011fan aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ba\u015f tutacaq. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u0259sas m\u00f6vzular\u0131ndan biri \u0130ran\u0131n g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yi olacaq v\u0259 ehtimal ki, Tramp T\u00fcrkiy\u0259y\u0259 birg\u0259 h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t t\u0259klifini ir\u0259li s\u00fcr\u0259c\u0259k. T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin milli maraqlar\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131narsa, bel\u0259 bir \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q realla\u015fa bil\u0259r. \u00c7\u00fcnki neft v\u0259 qaz T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 vasit\u0259sil\u0259 Avropaya \u00e7atd\u0131r\u0131lacaq ki, bu da \u00f6lk\u0259y\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 strateji \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fckl\u0259r qazand\u0131racaq.
\nXat\u0131rladaq ki, \u0259vv\u0259ll\u0259r Suriyada PKK-n\u0131n n\u0259zar\u0259tind\u0259 olan neft sah\u0259l\u0259rini ingilis \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259ri idar\u0259 edirdi. \u018fs\u0259d hakimiyy\u0259ti devrildikd\u0259n sonra \u0259raziy\u0259 art\u0131q T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 n\u0259zar\u0259t edir, burada f\u0259aliyy\u0259t g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259n is\u0259 AB\u015e-nin neft \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259ridir. Va\u015finqton T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 il\u0259 birg\u0259 h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t etm\u0259yi \u00fcst\u00fcn tutur. Bunun s\u0259b\u0259bi ayd\u0131nd\u0131r: h\u0259r iki t\u0259r\u0259fin g\u00fccl\u00fc ordusu, q\u0259tiyy\u0259ti v\u0259 ill\u0259rl\u0259 formala\u015fm\u0131\u015f qar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ql\u0131 etimad\u0131 m\u00f6vcuddur.
\nAvropa m\u00fcasir d\u00fcnya siyas\u0259tind\u0259 f\u0259al rol oynaya bilmir. Monolit bir g\u00fcc\u0259 \u00e7evril\u0259 bilm\u0259diyi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn h\u0259rbi potensial\u0131 yet\u0259rsizdir. AB\u015e is\u0259 bu y\u00fck\u00fc \u00f6z \u00fcz\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6t\u00fcrm\u0259k niyy\u0259tind\u0259 deyil. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 Avropa Birliyi AB\u015e, Rusiya v\u0259 \u00c7in aras\u0131nda m\u00fcst\u0259qil oyun\u00e7u kimi m\u00f6vqeyini qoruyacaq g\u00fcc\u0259 malik deyil.
\nHal-haz\u0131rda AB\u015e Avropa \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 10 faiz g\u00f6mr\u00fck vergisi t\u0259tbiq edib v\u0259 t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259r aras\u0131ndak\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lmazl\u0131q a\u00e7\u0131q g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr.
\nAB\u015e-nin \u0130sraill\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259ri d\u0259 t\u0259s\u0259vv\u00fcr edildiyi q\u0259d\u0259r isti deyil. Netanyahu d\u0259f\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 Trampla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u0259r\u0259k T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin Q\u0259zzada s\u00fclhm\u0259raml\u0131 missiyaya g\u0259lm\u0259m\u0259sini ist\u0259yib, lakin bu t\u0259\u015f\u0259bb\u00fcs\u00fc n\u0259tic\u0259siz qal\u0131b. Tramp Netanyahuya T\u00fcrkiy\u0259d\u0259n uzaq durma\u011f\u0131 t\u0259klif edib. \u018fks halda, T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 ordusunun iki saat sonra Tel-\u0259viv\u0259 \u00e7ata bil\u0259c\u0259yini xat\u0131rlad\u0131b. Lakin Netanyahu h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 \u00fcmidl\u0259rini itirm\u0259yib v\u0259 davaml\u0131 olaraq ist\u0259yin\u0259 nail olmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259n m\u00fcxt\u0259lif yollara \u0259l at\u0131r.
\n\u018fg\u0259r T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 \u0130ran m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259sinin i\u00e7\u0259risind\u0259 aktiv rol oynasa, hakimiyy\u0259t d\u0259yi\u015fikliyi \u00e7ox qan t\u00f6k\u00fclm\u0259d\u0259n h\u0259yata ke\u00e7\u0259 bil\u0259r.
\nC\u0259nubi Az\u0259rbaycan \u0259razisind\u0259 PJAK-la toqqu\u015fma riski \u0259razi iddialar\u0131 z\u0259minind\u0259 olduqca y\u00fcks\u0259kdir. \u0130raq PKK-s\u0131, Suriya PYD-si v\u0259 \u0130ran PJAK-\u0131 kimi silahl\u0131 q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259rin c\u0259nubdak\u0131 qarda\u015flar\u0131m\u0131zla toqqu\u015fma riski y\u00fcks\u0259kdir. Bu ba\u015f ver\u0259rs\u0259, milyonlarla soyda\u015f\u0131m\u0131z T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 v\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycana \u00fcz tutacaq.
\n\u0130ran\u0131n par\u00e7alanmas\u0131, x\u00fcsusil\u0259, Tehran\u2013T\u0259briz ticar\u0259t yolunun q\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli acl\u0131\u011fa s\u0259b\u0259b ola bil\u0259r. Bu is\u0259 t\u0259kc\u0259 \u0130ran \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn deyil, b\u00fct\u00fcn region d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn son d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259li bir ssenaridir.
\n\u0130randa ba\u015f ver\u0259n etirazlar v\u0259 daxili g\u0259rginlik h\u0259m regional, h\u0259m d\u0259 qlobal g\u00fccl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn kritik m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259y\u0259 daxil olub. Bu prosesl\u0259rin gedi\u015fat\u0131 x\u00fcsusil\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan v\u0259 \u00fcmumilikd\u0259 Qafqaz regionu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ciddi riskl\u0259r v\u0259 eyni zamanda m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n f\u00fcrs\u0259tl\u0259r yarad\u0131r.
\nSabitliyin tam pozulaca\u011f\u0131 t\u0259qdird\u0259 geni\u015fmiqyasl\u0131 insan k\u00f6\u00e7\u00fc ba\u015flaya bil\u0259r ki, bu da sosial v\u0259 iqtisadi bax\u0131mdan a\u011f\u0131r y\u00fck dem\u0259kdir. Eyni zamanda, s\u0259rh\u0259dyan\u0131 b\u00f6lg\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 radikal qruplar\u0131n aktivl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si v\u0259 terror riskinin artmas\u0131 ehtimal\u0131 y\u00fcks\u0259lir.
\n\u0130ran\u2013Az\u0259rbaycan d\u0259mir v\u0259 quru yollar\u0131n\u0131n, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 Nax\u00e7\u0131van mar\u015frutunun k\u0259silm\u0259si \u0259lav\u0259 probleml\u0259r yaradar. Bununla bel\u0259, \u0130ran\u0131n z\u0259ifl\u0259m\u0259si uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli perspektivd\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n milli t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n faydalar ver\u0259 bil\u0259r. \u0130lk n\u00f6vb\u0259d\u0259 ideoloji t\u0259zyiql\u0259rin azalmas\u0131 bu bax\u0131mdan m\u00fch\u00fcm amildir. Eyni zamanda, \u0130ran\u0131n z\u0259ifl\u0259m\u0259si Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n enerji m\u0259rk\u0259zi kimi rolunu daha da g\u00fccl\u0259ndir\u0259 bil\u0259r.
\nSon etiraz dal\u011fas\u0131 \u0259vv\u0259lkil\u0259rd\u0259n daha g\u00fccl\u00fc olub. Bunun \u0259sas s\u0259b\u0259bi pulun s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 d\u0259y\u0259r itirm\u0259si v\u0259 enerji b\u00f6hran\u0131n\u0131n xalq\u0131 \u00e7\u0131x\u0131lmaz v\u0259ziyy\u0259t\u0259 salmas\u0131d\u0131r. Etirazlar art\u0131q t\u0259kc\u0259 iqtisadi xarakter da\u015f\u0131m\u0131r, birba\u015fa rejimi h\u0259d\u0259f al\u0131r. Rejim h\u0259l\u0259lik da\u011f\u0131lmaq \u00fczr\u0259 olmasa da, 2026-c\u0131 ild\u0259 ciddi d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259rin ba\u015f ver\u0259c\u0259yi g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir.
\nBu prosesl\u0259r yaln\u0131z o halda real n\u0259tic\u0259 ver\u0259 bil\u0259r ki, ordu v\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259ri xalq\u0131n t\u0259r\u0259fin\u0259 ke\u00e7sin. \u0130nanmaq olar ki, onlar da xalq\u0131n n\u00fcmay\u0259nd\u0259l\u0259ri kimi molla rejimind\u0259n bezibl\u0259r v\u0259 uy\u011fun m\u0259qamda add\u0131m atacaqlar.
\n\u0130srail \u0130ran\u0131n n\u00fcv\u0259 proqram\u0131na v\u0259 xaricd\u0259 f\u0259aliyy\u0259t g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259n proksi q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 Hizbullaha z\u0259rb\u0259l\u0259r endirm\u0259kl\u0259 onun g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 z\u0259ifl\u0259dib.
\nTramp administrasiyas\u0131 is\u0259 maksimum t\u0259zyiq siyas\u0259tini davam etdirir, etirazlara a\u00e7\u0131q d\u0259st\u0259k verir v\u0259 h\u0259rbi m\u00fcdaxil\u0259 q\u0259rar\u0131n\u0131 daim g\u00fcnd\u0259md\u0259 saxlay\u0131r.
\nQ\u0259rb \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri proses\u0259 a\u00e7\u0131q \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 qo\u015fulmasalar da, sanksiyalar v\u0259 k\u0259\u015ffiyyat d\u0259st\u0259yi vasit\u0259sil\u0259 \u0130randa daxili naraz\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 maksimum h\u0259dd\u0259 \u00e7atd\u0131rma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar.
\nRejim faktiki olaraq idar\u0259olunmaz v\u0259ziyy\u0259t\u0259 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb. Etirazlar s\u0259rt \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 yat\u0131rd\u0131lsa da, k\u00f6hn\u0259 qaydalarla \u00f6lk\u0259ni idar\u0259 etm\u0259k art\u0131q m\u00fcmk\u00fcn deyil.
\nHakimiyy\u0259t daxilind\u0259 ciddi \u00e7atlar yaran\u0131b, m\u00fchafiz\u0259karlarla islahat\u00e7\u0131lar aras\u0131ndak\u0131 u\u00e7urum getdikc\u0259 d\u0259rinl\u0259\u015fir. Xalqla d\u00f6vl\u0259t aras\u0131nda is\u0259 etimad q\u0131r\u0131l\u0131b.
\nBu \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 rejimin qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda iki yol qal\u0131r: ya k\u00f6kl\u00fc islahatlara getm\u0259k, ya da repressiv h\u0259rbi diktaturaya \u00e7evrilm\u0259k. H\u0259r iki halda bu prosesl\u0259r m\u00f6vcud rejimin son \u00e7\u0131rp\u0131n\u0131\u015flar\u0131 kimi qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndiril\u0259 bil\u0259r”.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Yaz\u0131ya 38 d\u0259f\u0259 bax\u0131l\u0131b<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u018fdal\u0259t partiyas\u0131n\u0131n Humanitar m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259r \u00fczr\u0259 s\u0259dr m\u00fcavini Rafiq \u018fs\u0259dov son g\u00fcnl\u0259r \u0130ran \u0130slam Respublikas\u0131 \u0259traf\u0131nda yaranm\u0131\u015f g\u0259rginliyin inki\u015faf dinamikas\u0131n\u0131 \u015f\u0259rh edib: “\u0130ran\u0131n par\u00e7alanma riski getdikc\u0259 art\u0131r. AB\u015e-nin bu prosesi yar\u0131m\u00e7\u0131q qoymaq niyy\u0259tind\u0259 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131q g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr. Vaxtil\u0259 \u00c7in\u0259 ucuz neft ixrac ed\u0259n Venesuelan\u0131 \u0259l\u0259 ke\u00e7ir\u0259n Va\u015finqton indi d\u0259 \u0130ran neftinin \u00c7in\u0259 yolunu ba\u011flama\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Bunun \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22002,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[10],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22000"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22000"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22000\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22003,"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22000\/revisions\/22003"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/22002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22000"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22000"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22000"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}