{"id":22377,"date":"2026-04-13T17:02:01","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T13:02:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/?p=22377"},"modified":"2026-04-13T17:15:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T13:15:35","slug":"abs-israil-iran-munaqis%c9%99si-kim-qalib-g%c9%99ldi-kim-uddu-kim-uduzdu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/?p=22377","title":{"rendered":"AB\u015e \u2013 \u0130srail \u2013 \u0130ran m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259si, kim qalib g\u0259ldi, kim uddu, kim uduzdu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Elman Ba\u011f\u0131rov,<\/em><\/strong>
\u018fdal\u0259t Partiyas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0259dr m\u00fcavini<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/div>\n

AB\u015e\u2013\u0130srail\u2013\u0130ran qar\u015f\u0131durmas\u0131 \u201cklassik m\u00fcharib\u0259\u201d deyil, \u0130ran m\u0259\u011flub olmay\u0131b, daha \u00e7ox uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli geosiyasi, h\u0259rbi v\u0259 psixoloji r\u0259qab\u0259tdir. Ona g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 \u201ckim qalib g\u0259ldi?\u201d sual\u0131n\u0131n cavab\u0131 q\u0131sa v\u0259 birm\u0259nal\u0131 deyil \u2014 amma m\u00f6vcud m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259d\u0259 nisbi qazananlar v\u0259 uduzanlar \u00fczr\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259 aparmaq olar.<\/p>\n

Bu qar\u015f\u0131durmada \u201cKim uddu, kim uduzdu\u201d sual\u0131na h\u0259m q\u0131sa, h\u0259m d\u0259 detall\u0131 cavablar tapma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015faq:<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 H\u0259rbi bax\u0131mdan<\/strong> \u2013 AB\u015e v\u0259 \u0130srail \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck \u0259ld\u0259 edib<\/p>\n

H\u0259rbi n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 baxsaq AB\u015e v\u0259 \u0130sraili taktiki qalib saymaq olar. \u0130ran\u0131n raket sisteml\u0259ri, h\u0259rbi bazalar\u0131, donanmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6y\u00fck hiss\u0259si m\u0259hv edilib, h\u00fccum qabiliyy\u0259ti ciddi azal\u0131b. N\u00fcv\u0259 infrastrukturu yenid\u0259n ciddi z\u0259rb\u0259 al\u0131b, h\u0259rbi s\u0259nayesi ne\u00e7\u0259 onillikl\u0259r geri at\u0131l\u0131b. AB\u015e \u2013 \u0130srail hava \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fcy\u00fcn\u00fc tam t\u0259min edib. AB\u015e regionda m\u00fcvcudlu\u011funu v\u0259 t\u0259sirini qoruyur, K\u00f6rf\u0259z \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rini \u00f6z t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik orbitind\u0259 saxlay\u0131r.<\/p>\n

AB\u015e v\u0259 \u0130srailin h\u0259rbi \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fckl\u0259rin\u0259 baxmayaraq, \u0130ran h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 tutarl\u0131 cavab z\u0259rb\u0259l\u0259ri endirir. H\u00f6rm\u00fcz bo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259zar\u0259td\u0259 saxlaya bilir.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Strateji v\u0259 siyasi bax\u0131mdan<\/strong> \u2013 AB\u015e strateji \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck qazansa da tam q\u0259l\u0259b\u0259 qazana bilm\u0259yib. \u0130ran m\u0259\u011flub olmay\u0131b, AB\u015e \u2013 \u0131n \u0259sas m\u0259qs\u0259dl\u0259rind\u0259n biri olan \u201cRejimin devrilm\u0259si\u201d ba\u015f tutmay\u0131b, \u0130ran\u0131n n\u00fcv\u0259 v\u0259 raket proqram\u0131n\u0131 tam dayand\u0131ra bilm\u0259yib.<\/p>\n

Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 sabitliyi t\u0259min ed\u0259 bilm\u0259yib. \u00c7in v\u0259 Rusiya kimi r\u0259qibl\u0259rin regiona daxil olmas\u0131 art\u0131b. AB\u015e h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 \u0259sas g\u00fccd\u00fcr, amma \u0259vv\u0259lki kimi \u201ctam dominant\u201d deyil.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

– \u0130ran regionda \u00f6z t\u0259sirini saxlay\u0131r, \u201cM\u00fcqavim\u0259t oxu\u201d (\u0130raq, Suriya, Livan v\u0259 Y\u0259m\u0259nd\u0259ki proksi q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259r) z\u0259ifl\u0259s\u0259 d\u0259 tam yox olmay\u0131b, n\u00fcv\u0259 proqram\u0131n\u0131 m\u0259hv olmaqdan qoruyub saxlaya bilib. Beyn\u0259lxalq t\u0259crid, daxili naraz\u0131l\u0131qlarla \u00fczl\u0259\u015f\u0259n \u0130ran \u201cProksi m\u00fcharib\u0259\u201d strategiyas\u0131 il\u0259 birba\u015fa toqqu\u015fmadan qa\u00e7\u0131r, \u0259n \u00e7ox z\u0259r\u0259r g\u00f6rs\u0259 d\u0259 \u201coyunu pozma\u201d qabiliyy\u0259tini saxlay\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran h\u0259rbi-siyasi bax\u0131mdan m\u00f6vqeyini qoruyub, amma iqtisadi bax\u0131mdan ciddi uduzur.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

– \u0130srail bu m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259d\u0259 taktiki u\u011furlar qazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 q\u0259d\u0259r strateji riskl\u0259r\u0259 getmi\u015fdir. \u0130ran\u0131n Suriyadak\u0131 v\u0259 regiondak\u0131 b\u0259zi m\u00f6vqel\u0259rin\u0259 z\u0259rb\u0259l\u0259r endirib, k\u0259\u015ffiyyat v\u0259 texnoloji \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fcy\u00fcn\u00fc qoruyur, AB\u015e-la h\u0259rbi-siyasi ittifaq\u0131 g\u00fccl\u00fcd\u00fcr. \u0130ran\u0131n \u0259traf\u0131nda \u201cm\u00fctt\u0259fiq halqas\u0131\u201d (Hizbullah, H\u018fMAS v\u0259 s.) qal\u0131r, regionda uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik riski y\u00fcks\u0259kdir. Daimi m\u00fcharib\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti iqtisadi v\u0259 sosial y\u00fck yarad\u0131r, siyasi liderlik (Netanyahu) ciddi t\u0259nqid olunur.<\/p>\n

\u0130srail q\u0131sa m\u00fcdd\u0259td\u0259 g\u00fccl\u00fcd\u00fcr, amma uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik problemi qal\u0131r.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u0130qtisadi bax\u0131mdan<\/strong> –\u00a0 Dem\u0259k olar ki ham\u0131 uduzub (x\u00fcsusil\u0259 d\u00fcnya iqtisadiyyat\u0131, Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131). H\u00f6rm\u00fcz bo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131n ba\u011flanmas\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin k\u0259skin artmas\u0131 d\u00fcnya \u00fczr\u0259 enerji b\u00f6hran\u0131 riski yaratd\u0131, beyn\u0259lxalq logistika v\u0259 ticar\u0259t pozuldu, qlobal \u201cDomino effekti\u201d yarand\u0131. Bu b\u00f6hrandan milyonlarla insan yoxsullu\u011fa d\u00fc\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n

\u018fn ciddi iqtisadi z\u0259rb\u0259 alan \u00f6lk\u0259 \u0130rand\u0131r. \u00d6lk\u0259d\u0259 infrastruktur ciddi da\u011f\u0131nt\u0131lara m\u0259ruz qald\u0131. Sanksiyalar v\u0259 m\u00fcharib\u0259 ciddi iqtisadi kollaps riski yaratm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r ki, \u0130ran\u0131 qar\u015f\u0131da daha ciddi iqtisadi b\u00f6hran\u0131n g\u00f6zl\u0259diyini dem\u0259k olar.<\/p>\n

AB\u015e bu m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259d\u0259 iqtisadi c\u0259h\u0259td\u0259n qism\u0259n uduzan t\u0259r\u0259fdir. Yanacaq qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin art\u0131m\u0131 daxili siyasi t\u0259zyiqin artmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b oldu, Bahal\u0131 raketl\u0259r v\u0259 resurslar s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259ndi, bu da dig\u0259r regionlarda (\u00c7in, Rusiya istiqam\u0259ti) z\u0259ifl\u0259m\u0259 riski yaratd\u0131.<\/p>\n

AB\u015e \u2013 \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck iqtisadi qazananlardan biridir.<\/p>\n

Silah ixrac\u0131 k\u0259skin artd\u0131 (x\u00fcsusil\u0259 \u0130srail v\u0259 K\u00f6rf\u0259z \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259)<\/p>\n

Enerji bazar\u0131nda t\u0259siri g\u00fccl\u0259ndi (LNG – mayel\u0259\u015fdirilmi\u015f t\u0259bii qaz ixrac\u0131 Avropa v\u0259 Asiyaya)<\/p>\n

Dollar\u0131n qlobal dominantl\u0131\u011f\u0131 qorundu<\/p>\n

AB\u015e \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259 h\u0259m h\u0259rbi, h\u0259m iqtisadi bax\u0131mdan \u201cidar\u0259 olunan g\u0259lir m\u0259nb\u0259yi\u201ddir.<\/p>\n

DOLAYI QAZANANLAR<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259d\u0259n \u0259n \u00e7ox fayda g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u0259nl\u0259r b\u0259z\u0259n birba\u015fa t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259r deyil:<\/p>\n

Rusiya<\/strong> \u2013 regionda t\u0259sir imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. Neft v\u0259 qaz qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin artmas\u0131ndan b\u00f6y\u00fck g\u0259lir \u0259ld\u0259 etdi. Q\u0259rbin diqq\u0259ti Ukraynadan bir q\u0259d\u0259r yay\u0131nd\u0131, \u0130ranla \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q geni\u015fl\u0259ndi<\/p>\n

\u00c7in<\/strong> \u2013 enerji v\u0259 iqtisadi \u0259laq\u0259l\u0259rini geni\u015fl\u0259ndirir. \u00c7in \u2013 s\u0259ssiz iqtisadi qalib. Ucuz \u0130ran nefti alma\u011fa davam etdi, regionda iqtisadi t\u0259sirini art\u0131rd\u0131 (\u0130p\u0259k yolu layih\u0259l\u0259ri)<\/p>\n

AB\u015e z\u0259ifl\u0259dikc\u0259 \u00c7in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn geosiyasi bo\u015fluq yarand\u0131. \u00c7in a\u00e7\u0131q i\u015ftirak etm\u0259d\u0259n maksimum iqtisadi fayda g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

S\u0259udiyy\u0259 \u018fr\u0259bistan\u0131 v\u0259 K\u00f6rf\u0259z \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri<\/strong><\/p>\n

Neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin qalxmas\u0131 il\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fck g\u0259lir \u0259ld\u0259 etdil\u0259r<\/p>\n

AB\u015e-dan t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik m\u00fcqabilind\u0259 siyasi v\u0259 iqtisadi g\u00fcz\u0259\u015ftl\u0259r qazand\u0131lar<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

YEKUN Q\u0130YM\u018fTL\u018fND\u0130RM\u018f<\/strong><\/p>\n

AB\u015e \u2192 h\u0259l\u0259 liderdir, amma z\u0259ifl\u0259y\u0259n dominantl\u0131q<\/p>\n

\u0130srail \u2192 g\u00fccl\u00fc, amma daimi risk alt\u0131nda<\/p>\n

\u0130ran \u2192 regional oyun\u00e7u kimi g\u00fccl\u0259nib, iqtisadi c\u0259h\u0259td\u0259n z\u0259if<\/p>\n

Bu qar\u015f\u0131durmada he\u00e7 kim tam qalib deyil, amma h\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259f m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n sah\u0259d\u0259 qazan\u0131r v\u0259 dig\u0259r sah\u0259d\u0259 uduzur.<\/p>\n

Bu m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259y\u0259 iqtisadi prizmadan baxanda maraql\u0131 bir m\u0259nz\u0259r\u0259 ortaya \u00e7\u0131x\u0131r: birba\u015fa t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259rd\u0259n \u00e7ox, dolay\u0131 i\u015ftirak\u00e7\u0131lar daha \u00e7ox pul qazan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bu m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259nin iqtisadi mahiyy\u0259ti bel\u0259dir:<\/p>\n

M\u00fcharib\u0259 v\u0259 g\u0259rginlik yaradanlar yox, onu \u201cidar\u0259 ed\u0259nl\u0259r\u201d v\u0259 \u201ck\u0259nardan istifad\u0259 ed\u0259nl\u0259r\u201d daha \u00e7ox pul qazan\u0131r.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Yaz\u0131ya 22 d\u0259f\u0259 bax\u0131l\u0131b<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AB\u015e\u2013\u0130srail\u2013\u0130ran qar\u015f\u0131durmas\u0131 \u201cklassik m\u00fcharib\u0259\u201d deyil, \u0130ran m\u0259\u011flub olmay\u0131b, daha \u00e7ox uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli geosiyasi, h\u0259rbi v\u0259 psixoloji r\u0259qab\u0259tdir. Ona g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 \u201ckim qalib g\u0259ldi?\u201d sual\u0131n\u0131n cavab\u0131 q\u0131sa v\u0259 birm\u0259nal\u0131 deyil \u2014 amma m\u00f6vcud m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259d\u0259 nisbi qazananlar v\u0259 uduzanlar \u00fczr\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259 aparmaq olar. Bu qar\u015f\u0131durmada \u201cKim uddu, kim uduzdu\u201d sual\u0131na h\u0259m q\u0131sa, h\u0259m d\u0259 detall\u0131 cavablar tapma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015faq: […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22384,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[10],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22377"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22377"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22377\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22389,"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22377\/revisions\/22389"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/22384"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kultur.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}